The Referendum Commission states that the Government had the power to veto the treaty that will set up the ESM, but that the Government chose not to use that power. That means that they had the power to veto any and all versions of the ESM until they got the version that they were happy with, but out of all possible versions of the ESM, they chose to allow the particular version that may now be set up at some future date. If they really believed that this version carries a risk that it could deny us access to all second bailout funds, why did they not veto this particular version? The answer is because they didn't believe that we could be denied access to all second bailout funds. The reason they didn't believe this, is because they'd already been assured that we would get a second bailout. They'd been assured of this by the Heads of Government who had just signed off on the final version of the Fiscal Treaty, when, on Monday January 30 2012, they also signed up to this:
“We will continue to provide support to countries under a programme until they have regained market access, provided they successfully implement their programmes"(1) (My emphasis added).
This doesn't say what the means of support will be; it doesn't mention the ESM. It contains only one condition: successfull implementation of the programmes. Enda Kenny referred to this statement in the Dail on February 1 2012 when he said:
"This was endorsed again by the conclusions of Monday’s meeting where the Heads of Government specifically referred to the fact that a country leaving a programme will continue to receive funding so long as it measures up to the conditions for which it signed on. That is the story." (2) (My emphasis).
So, there's no risk in voting No. Voting No will not deny Ireland access to support, if it is needed, but voting yes will guarantee that we live under the bailout conditions that we have now, but forever more, whether we would've needed support or not. That is how Enda Kenny and Micheal Martin described it last December. On December 8 2011, Enda Kenny, heading to the summit on the Fiscal Compact, described its conditions as bailout conditions, when he said:
“that Ireland being in a bailout situation is actually going through a great deal of the issues that are referred to here”(3).
The following week in the Dail, on December 14 2011, Micheal Martin described its conditions like this:
"agreement reached at this summit is both foolish and damaging"(4)
and
"The enforcement procedures are such that these rules will effectively set the entire economic framework for the future of this country. Not one person in the Council chamber last week could say what would be the impact of these rules. This is madness."(4)
A vote yes is a vote for permanent bailout conditions.
I'm voting for the future, not the short run. I'm voting for a future where we, our children and their children don't live under permanent bailout conditions. I'm voting no.
Notes:
(1) Source for January 30 2012 Heads of Government statement made after Fiscal Treaty finalised: http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/ec/127633.pdf
(2) Source for Enda Kenny's February 1 2012 Dail statement: http://debates.oireachtas.ie/dail/2012/02/01/00003.asp
(3) Source for Enda Kenny's statement on RTE radio 1, on Decemebr 8 2011, report begins at 39 minutes 3 seconds on RTE player slider: http://www.rte.ie/radio/radioplayer/rteradioweb.html#!rii=9%3A3135957%3A83%3A08-12-2011%3A
(4) Source for Micheal Martin's statements: http://debates.oireachtas.ie/dail/2011/12/14/unrevised1.pdf